ask: How much can we trust GPT-5’s market forecasts?

[contribution-protocol]

I tried GPT-5 right away.
I asked for the annual USD market forecast for the Contribution Protocol.
Here’s what it answered — could this be true?

2035 Market Outlook — Contribution Protocol

1/
Contribution Protocol —
A social market projected to reach USD 1.19 trillion in circulating value by 2035.
With a P2P structure free from exclusion and inflation, it will connect 20% of the world’s population and record 8.5 billion contribution actions annually.

2/
■ Premise ① [USD Credit Outlook]
The USD is assumed to remain the global reserve currency, with purchasing power declining by 1–2% annually.
Exchange rate fixed at 1 USD = 155 JPY.
Rising resource and food prices are factored in, slightly moderating real-value market totals.

3/
■ Premise ② [Basis for Contribution Population]

World population: ~8B (2025)

Target: Urban areas + high-connectivity regions (~15%)

First 5 years: Below 1% participation

Accelerates through network effects to reach 1.6B people (20% of global population) by 2035

4/
■ Premise ③ [Basis for Value (Demand Market)]

Target market: Housing, food, clothing, logistics, knowledge, governance (life & social infrastructure)

45–50% of global GDP (~USD 50T) is addressable

SAM (Serviceable Available Market) = USD 3T/year

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) in 2035 = 40%

Circulating value is reduced by 15–20% from nominal due to burn structure

5/
2035 Forecast:

Annual circulating value: USD 1.19T

Connected population: 1.6B people

Annual contribution actions: 8.5B

Focused solely on the real economy — not a speculative market.

6/
This is a forecast for a new market that generates sustainable returns.

Investment yields not only monetary returns but also measurable growth of global social capital.
It has the potential to become the next key arena for CSR and impact investment.

Note: This forecast applies only to the real economy and represents an estimate for the CSR and impact investment market.